Personally I just cant see BGA accepting the Saputo offer.
I just think BGA have much more to gain by tying up with MG (which has been the rumour around Bega for the last couple of months) or selling to someone else with the aim of creating a greater foothold in China.
Besides the money i don't think Saputo offer much else.
A sale to either MG or Chinese interests has benefits much greater than the cash. This to me may not take place until after the games have all finished.
BGA directors have a clear growth plan and whilst the money would be good it creates other problems which I have outlined before. They can have there cake and eat it to and I think if they play it right they will achieve that.
As to BGa and MG not getting along, that is true in some aspects but will be overcome if it is the best interests.
So for me BGA will not sell to Saputo and they won't get 50% so offer consideration is $9. I think those buying on market now are hedging on a MG outcome that allows them to move forward with their bid and as the last man standing they have the advantage and will get the 50% thus $9.50 for WCB shareholders. T+3 trading means that time is basically up if you are buying now.
As a BGA shareholder I lean towards MG as it offers us the greatest long term advantage and keeps WCB in Australia.
May be proven wrong, on the stock market that is a given but i always say to anyone who asks, a profit today is better than taking on more risk and uncertainty.
$9.25 roughly today, maybe $9(best case $9.20 I think) next week if Saputo offer accepted or MG's $9.50 if you like the extra risk. Seems clear to me, but that is my risk profile.
No advice, just my thoughts.
WCB Price at posting:
$9.28 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
