Leverage... by Japan...

I'm not sure that many posters realize the significance of an article that first appeared in the Financial Review on December 17, 2018. It was an article that described the Japanese interest in Lynas, in particular the reliable supply of quality REs and how vital they are to the Japanese economy.

Anyway the information in the article is still pertinent, here are some quotes from that article I found interesting...

The first is a quote indicating the Japanese are keenly aware of the Malaysia threat...

"The ongoing feud between Australian rare earths producer Lynas and the Malaysian government has drawn the attention of the Japanese government and businesses that rely on the minerals to power its economy"

This is a definitive statement as it indicates both the government and businesses are concerned about the supply chain. The more concern the better I guess...

Then...

Hideto Nakajima, economic counsellor at the Japanese embassy in Kuala Lumpur, said the Japanese government was monitoring the situation and that it was prepared to intervene if necessary.

"We want Lynas' operations to continue and it's important that they comply with rules and regulations in Malaysia," he said. "The embassy would like to support in any way it can to facilitate."

Pretty encouraging stuff here, I would bet that any intervention by the Japanese would be indirect rather than direct and a result of the many forces in play here...

Also...

"In a sign of a renewal in Japanese-Malaysian relations, the Japanese government will also grant Malaysia access to $US1.8 billion of Japanese capital by allowing Malaysia to issue 10-year "samurai bonds" in Japan by March 2019"

Just the mention of the $1.8b of Japanese capital in the last quote is a good sign in that it signals that Japan is ready to play hardball. As a side note, the loan from Japan ($1.8b) is right around the not so long ago Lynas market cap. In any event it just may be sayonara to the samurai bonds should Malaysia (Yeo) continue to hider Lynas and disrupt a critical supply chain that will have global implications...

Finally...

"Asked whether Japanese corporations like Sojitz, Lynas' sole distributor in Japan, had been lobbying the Malaysian government for a change in the ministry's ruling, Mr Nakajima said companies would communicate directly with authorities and Lynas."

My guess is that Amanda has been negotiating with Japan with Malaysia's fate hanging in the balance. This is bigger than Fuzzy, this is bigger than Yeo, this is even bigger than Mahathir who continues to fade into the background more and more with every press release. The Japanese have the leverage to keep Malaysia at bay which a good tool to have in the box. That said, it is always better to resolve things amicably, hopefully Yeo will see the score and make the intelligent decision on her own...

Given that the Japanese embassy is a fairly creditable source it clearly points to the fact that Japan is fully aware of Yeo's antics. Hopefully there is a political leash to rein in the intrepid minister, she has had her fun in the sun... If this is the case we should see some sense of reason begin to prevail as the strong hand of the Japanese guides the ultimate outcome...   JMHO...

https://www.copyright link/business...-of-japans-rare-earths-puzzle-20181214-h1943w