Though you and many others seem tothink that Lynas can expand without limits lets look at the history of NEXT.
Improvement in volume and Quality of Ce and La caused price drops.
Shipments of SEG to Chinna resulted in lower SEG prices.
Improvements in NdPr in volume were meet with price drops.
Separated Nd was meet with a major price drop.
Shipments of Pr were met with a price drop.This not bad news for Lynas. It meansthey have become a major influence in the marketplace. The REO market is no longer controlled by just China. This is good news. It also means that stock holders have to be aware that major action by Lynas will now have an impact on Market. To not expect price changes with changes Lynas makes is short sighted.
In the near future if WW economy picks up so will REO prices. Ifeconomy slows more or Lynas increases output again without, a pick up in demand, prices will drop.
In the long term current low prices are a good thing. They will slow down research into alternatives that use less or no REO.
Malaysia will come out fine I have been saying this for 9 months now. The question is if after Malaysia is all settled will all those intently watching Malaysia be shocked if prices do not rise much because Of profits. The current TMM PE is 57.76, this is published on most Web sites. I will be the first to admit that this is very misleading because it uses the very low H2 2018 and the OK but not great H1 2019. It will be much better when it uses FY 2019 The Question is will it be 20 or something higher at a $2.00 stock price. Right now volumes and COGS for Lynas will only improve a little with small adjustments to the process and no major changes planed. Even if a major campaign is announce in Q3 CC how long will it take to have an impact. Lynas management is very good I am sure they choose the easiest quickest and most cost effective changes for NEXT. Do you think the next improvement cycle will be as effective?Lynas will do fine. NEXT has lowered COGs and increased both Quality and volume. Profits of $19M H1 excluding exchange gain. Blew me away and that is why I cautiously started Buying and posted that fact. Recent REO price drops have caused me to put in low limits which means no sale. I will wait for Q3 to decide whether to change those limits.
I will totally agree that the futurewill be very bright. I see a $5.00 or $10.00 SP in the future. The question that needs answering is when is that and what happens in the near term. As long as REO prices continue to fall and WW economy continues to weaken I will be very cautious in my buying maybe even sell what little I have bought recently.
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2 | 6000 | 6.780 |
3 | 12113 | 6.770 |
2 | 25312 | 6.760 |
2 | 12498 | 6.750 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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6.800 | 9043 | 4 |
6.820 | 20113 | 5 |
6.830 | 8832 | 1 |
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