For every buyer there is a seller so for every person who...

For every buyer there is a seller so for every person who believes that a stock holds value, there is a seller believing that the value proposition is no longer there. This is the nature of the market and also of sites like HC.

So, for me, I use HC as a means to constantly evaluate and challenge my existing perspective on stocks. I try and avoid arguing and most often am happy to take in peoples varying viewpoints or simply and quietly agree to disagree.

There has been a steady increase in interest on the ADE thread as we get further into the shale/gas development process. We are naturally now seeing many positive posts and many posts that are questioning the relevant merits of this play which is all good and healthy for HC members.

I hold both BPT and ADE, being fortunate enough to acquire both at near 52 week lows. Given this is the ADE thread, I will focus on my views relating to ADE.

ADE has quality management and massive leverage into the CB shale/gas play. We can speculate and try to quantify the comparative leverage of the two companies but rather than look into the future lets look at the recent history.

BPT 60 cents to 90 cents on multiple and varied announcements (some concerning shale/gas and others not) resulting in a 50% SP increase.

ADE 6 cents to 14.5 cents on substantially the shale/gas momentum alone resulting in a 140% SP increase. I'm not inferring that ADE is a one trick pony. Simply that the recent announcement history which has moved the SP has been largely concerned with the shale/gas play.

So history is already telling us that ADE SP is better leveraged where this particular play is concerned.

With regard to the ongoing discussions surrounding the 200tcf being the total estimate for the trough and not the area we are concerned with. I have had discussion with management of both companies on numerous occasions over the period as to why they reference this figure.

Simply put, **according to Management**, the bulk of the estimated 200 tcf is believed to fall within the two permit areas (218 an 855). Geographically, both permits represent about 50% of the total area with ADE holding 10% and 20% of each respectively. To reiterate this important point ??? this is not my assumption. This is from Management of both ADE and BPT and is the reason that the 200tcf figure is constantly used in the presentations of both companies.

Now, as I have stated before, we only need a portion of the 200 tcf to be commercially extractable for this to be a multi bag asset. As has been quoted on the BPT thread by another HC member who had been in contact with BPT management ???????? there is a healthy degree of confidence at this stage that 20 tcf (an extraction of 10% of the 200 tcf total) is is a very realistic figure. I have also discussed this with management to add some clarity to that post and have received strikingly similar feedback.

So from an asset perspective we have 10% and 20% (lets work on 10%) of a potential 20 tcf extractable asset or a potential 200 tcf in ground asset being supported by the FACT that BHP just paid circa $5 billion for 10 tcf asset. This figure is HUGE and the BHP sale adds validity to the value of the asset, both in my eyes and in the eyes of management upon recent discussions. It clearly shows that the shale/gas play is REAL and IS being watched by the big boys.

So, given this recent history and assuming things play out, which is in the hands of the Gods (and Management) a 20 tcf extractable asset has a recent value of circa $10 billion. Therefore ADE have a market cap of Circa $45 million with a potential billion to multi billion dollar (depending on your valuation methodology) saleable asset being discovered and developed as we speak. For those that do not believe this has multi bag potential ???? do that Math!!!

So, all that aside, lets discuss strategy. The reality is that this play is too big for both ADE and BPT. Look at the size of this thing guys. If it plays out is is simply MASSIVE and will only be developed by the big boys AFTER they pay handsomely for the asset.

These two companies are sitting on what has been described as "A GAME CHANGING OPPORTUNITY" (Page 1, "BPT shale oil and gas update", dated 25 August,2010). The role of BPT and ADE is not to develop this asset (they are simply too small) but to Derisk the asset and in doing so attract the big boys and extract the maximum value for shareholders.

This is what they are doing and doing well. I continue to repeat it, but ???. There is an obvious reason that you can still buy ADE for 14-15 cents. It is uncertainty. If this plays out to the point where the certainty has arrived then your 14/15 cents will be a distant memory. You just have to decide if the risk/reward ratio is on your side. The clock is ticking and the window is closing.

This is not upramping. It is an opinion based on historical evidence of many ASX listed companies that have had massive SP appreciation leading up to potential "GAME CHANGING" discoveries.

Bottom line, get on board or don't get on board????? Your choice and your money. For mine, I cannot see a better short/medium term speculative opportunity at this point in time.