LFP battery/Phosphate news, page-709

Trontek Introduces Lithium Phosphate LFP Battery to its Product Range

https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/business/2023/04/04/dcm38-trontek.html

"Trontek, India's first and largest EV battery manufacturer today announced introducing Lithium Phosphate (LFP) battery to its range of EV batteries. With this, the company has become one of the first in India to have its range of LFP and NMC batteries AIS-certified in both phases, in compliance with the EV battery standards set by MoRTH (Ministry of Road Transport and Highways) in September last year.

Trontek's NMC batteries offer up to 3.6 KWh for E2W while LFP batteries offer 1.5 kWh to 3.64 kWh for E2W, and 5.35 KWh to 10.7 for E3W."

I've touched on India Ev's before here:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/lfp-battery-phosphate-news.6577772/page-287?post_id=64964737
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/lfp-battery-phosphate-news.6577772/page-436?post_id=65739932
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/lfp-battery-phosphate-news.6577772/page-439?post_id=65740110

So back of the envelope stuff here;

Bear case
- 300M motorcycles in India
- Assume 50% EV penetration by 2040
- 10M motorcycle sales per year so assume 5M EV 2W & 3W yearly sales (averaged out to 2040)
= 5M x 16 years = 80M EV's
- assume 40% LFP penetration as base case according to UBS
= 32M EV 2W & 3W powered by LFP batteries
- assume 1.5kWh for each LFP battery
= 48GWh LFP capacity by 2040

Bull case
- 300M motorcycles in India
- bull case assumes subsidies for local manufacturing and a push towards LFP for safety
- Assume 90% EV penetration by 2040
- 15M motorcycle sales per year so assume 13.5M EV 2W & 3W yearly sales (averaged out to 2040)
= 13.5M x 16 years = 216M EV's
- assume 85% LFP penetration as bull case (similar to China projections)
= 184M EV 2W & 3W powered by LFP batteries
- assume average of 4kWh for each LFP battery
= 736GWh LFP capacity by 2040 (i.e. 15x the amount required than the bear case)

This is only for 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers for the Indian EV market and not including passenger and commercial vehicles, buses, trucks etc

So a bull case could say overall 1TWh LFP capacity for the Indian EV market by 2040

That's a lot of phosphate