Well I might as well join the 'bull' side of the argument. Very, very interesting initiative from WA-govt. owned integrated electricity provider Synergy (see link below), tendering for large scale generation certificates (LGCs) from anywhere in Australia. This is positive for IFN because:
* it has a development pipeline of 1200MW large scale wind projects
* while balance sheet constrained, with a PPA, financing should be relatively easy
* it has an excellent reputation / good corporate governance due to being publicly listed
* Synergy has ~8% of Australia's REC liabilities (2009 numbers albeit), so it would have been a targeted customer (for IFN for the last 5+ years) and should have established relationships. Admittedly like the ACT auction, there will be lots and lots of competition.
The way I think about IFN is the LGC price with its current generation gives IFN a valuation >50c, with lumpy upside if they are able to deploy the 1200MW development pipeline.
Link:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/synergy-tenders-for-renewable-energy-projects-and-certificates-49657
LGC price $72.75, page-2
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