For the record, IMO steel will drive demand for TMTs Vanadium, however VRBs wshould create a new structural buffer that will stop the price falling too far below $10/lb.
Some thoughts re VRBs:
The large Rongke Vanadium redox battery in China generates 200mw of power and 800mwh of energy - about 6 times the energy of the South Australian Lithium battery. It requires about 7kt vanadium. At a presumed cost of $300/kwh for VRBs, that's US$240mil. The price for this might come down 20% or so at $10/lb, with benefits of scale as well as advancements in cathodes/membranes. The South Australia battery cost approx US $65m for 129mwh, so the Vanadium battery at scale works out to be cheaper - the SA battery cost approx $500/kwh, reflecting Li-ion's higher costs at scale - but this would likely have also come down a bit in cost since.
The aim has to be more than just blackouts. Storage of renewable energy for use at night is the end game. Lithium ion discharge only lasts a max of 3-4 hrs and degrades over time. However, even if VRBs were the go-to, there just isn't enough Vanadium to cut it.
An average American city of 1 million people uses about 8-10gwh of energy per day. Let's say 4gwh at night. That means the Rongke battery is good for storing daytime renewable energy for 200,000 people. So to power a large city like Sydney through the night (with a population of 5mil), you would need 25 Rongke batteries or 218kt of Vanadium - that's more that twice the world's current total annual output of Vanadium. There might be decent demand for Vanadium due to VRBs in the next decade (certainly if the price drops below $10/lb). They have great advantages, but considering the amount of Vanadium required, they aren't the answer to the world's storage puzzle.
