Apologies if already posted, I just thought this was a good...

Apologies if already posted, I just thought this was a good quick rundown for newbies.

MATTHEW BOHLSEN | JANUARY 03, 2022 | NO COMMENTS

2021 was a landmark year for electric vehicles (EVs) with global sales likely to end about 100% higher at around 6.4M plug-in electric car sales in 2021, up from ~3.2M in 2020. Looking ahead to 2022 that number looks likely to reach 10M+ which would be at least a 56% YoY rise. The 2022 number might be even higher if the 100% growth is maintained.

Given the above booming trend my top 3 stocks for 2022 are all related to EVs and EV metals. Two are lithium miners and one is an emerging EV company. Given the market will need around 183,000 tonnes of new lithium supply in 2022 (my forecast based on 10M e-cars produced), current high lithium prices should remain strong or even move higher. China lithium carbonate prices are currently at a record level of CNY 272,500/t (US$42,873/t).

The next wave of lithium producers are most likely to be:

• 2022 – Argosy Minerals, Ganfeng Lithium/Lithium Americas (Cauchari-Olaroz), Core Lithium.
• 2023 – Sigma Lithium, Sayona Mining/Piedmont Lithium (NAL operations).

Argosy Minerals (ASX: AGY | OTCPK: ARYMF) (“Argosy”)

Argosy is set to start commercial lithium production from mid-2022 which means they will be one of only 3 new lithium producers/projects to come online in 2022. The others have much higher valuations, such as Lithium Americas trading on a market cap of C$4.43B (US$3.5B) and Core Lithium market cap of A$987M (US$715M). By comparison Argosy trades on a market cap of A$405M (US$293M), which is less than half that or Core Lithium and about 12x less than Lithium Americas.

Argosy currently owns 77.5% on their Rincon Lithium Project, with a right to move to 90% upon development of a 10,000tpa operation. The Project is spread over ~2,794 hectares on the Salar del Rincon in Salta Province, Argentina. Argosy’s pilot plant operated for 2 years and produced battery grade quality (>99.5%) lithium carbonate which was sold to Asian customers. Argosy owns the Project via the Puna Mining JV.

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The other shareholder in the Puna Mining JV includes legendary lithium expert Pablo Alurralde. He is a Chemical Engineer and is a former director of FMC’s (now called Livent) Argentina operations where he invented lithium production from brines in Argentina. He was listed as an inventor for the patent presented at US Patents Offices as first inventor for “Production of Lithium Carbonate from concentrated brines on sodium chloride” granted to FMC.

Argosy is fully funded to Stage 1 where they plan to produce 2,000tpa of lithium carbonate starting from mid-2022. That means by mid 2023, all going well and at current China lithium prices, Argosy would be making about US$64M in sales, or after cash costs Argosy would be making around US$56M in gross revenue and close to U$40M of profits (allows for the fact Argosy currently owns 77.5% of their Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina).

The exciting part is that Argosy can potentially fund their planned expansion from 2,000tpa to 12,000tpa (by 2025) requiring US$141M Capex with a combination of profits (2 years of US$40M), off-take pre-payments for year 3 (~US$61M). Or a small equity raise could be used in combination with the pre-payment to raise the final US$61M. The Company is working on this now and final permitting for the 12,000tpa operation. This would be an extraordinary achievement to get to 12,000tpa production with no debt and perhaps no further equity raises. Even better is that at 12,000tpa Argosy would then own 90% of the project and at current lithium prices would be achieving sales (less royalties) of ~US$450M pa (net profits of ~US$270M pa) by around 2025. Quite amazing for a company that today trades on a market cap of US$293M and no debt.

The usual risks of mining apply, and lithium prices may fall back if demand was to suddenly weaken significantly.

I forgot to mention that Argosy 100% owns another lithium asset, the Tonopah Lithium Project located near Albemarle’s Silver Peak operation in Nevada, USA. This gives Argosy a second option, albeit not until a few years from now and subject to exploration and permitting success etc.

Argosy Minerals is my number 1 stock pick for 2022.