AGY

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5.0¢ argosy minerals limited

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Sdaji

5,574 Posts.

2213

14/01/22

10:52

Post #: 58858793
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Originally posted by Sdaji ↑

Golly! 322,500! Just shy of AU$70k! :O

Today's AGY candle was actually fairly bearish, especially considering we could be considered overbought by TA measures, but with that dilithium price just rocketing upwards as it is, good luck to anyone thinking about selling tomorrow!

I won't be surprised to see a morning shakeout and some Friday FOMO, especially in our infamous hour of power.

This timing of a bearish tombstone doji might be perfect given we're sitting around 40c and with dilithium going bananas, giving the traders and weak hands a real incentive to rush for the door at open and early in the session, but with enough bullish factors to bring in a rally to end the week. I can't see the market letting us get away with a soggy finish; they're going to want in before the week is out if there's an opportunity.

I'd bet that tomorrow's low price won't ever be repeated, and it'll probably happen in the morning.

Simoncho: I don't think 400,000 is at all out of the question. I think much more likely than not we will indeed see it, it's more when than if. If you look at the cost of the dilithium carbonate specifically (not the battery cost but specifically the dilithium carbonate), it's not a huge percentage of the overall cost of a BEV, so it's not like an oil price which has a price ceiling (if crude prices go too high, say, hypothetically by 5x up to a few hundred dollars per barrel, most people just couldn't afford to put fuel in their cars for anything other than absolutely essential tasks and consumption would plummet). Dilithium carbonate could go up by multiples even from here and it wouldn't make the cost of BEVs go up by multiples, or impact their running costs at all. I'm not saying it's going to happen or predicting it, but given the completely unprecedented scenario we are in with the EV revolution taking place and the economics of the situation, topping a million CNY per tonne is a potential we could conceivably see in the next year or two.

If my understanding is correct, at current dilithium prices, the ballpark cost of it in a typical BEV is around AU$1,000. You could multiply that several times and it wouldn't increase the cost of producing a BEV in any other way, so if our sale price went up by several times, it would only add a few % to the cost of a typical BEV, which wouldn't particularly slow down the market... but, imagine what it would do to our share price! Crunch the numbers with those prices if we're producing 12,000TPA :O I'm not even going to post the ballpark market cap/SP that calculation gives!

Expand

That morning shakeout I was talking about yesterday did happen but it looks like it's pretty much over a little more quickly than I expected. I would have liked to see more volume, but I suppose there aren't too many silly enough to be spooked into selling at the moment.

The rest of the day should get good and today's hour of power might see us retest the recent high of 42c or even beat it.

On seeing the dilithium price last night I did some calculations based on 12,000TPA and sale prices in the ballpark of where I see it going... I think we're actually moderately *likely* to see about a Disallowed even from here, and potentially a multiple *of that*!

Anyway, we've just taken out 40c as I've typed this and the rest of the day looks great. Enjoy the show!

AGY Price at posting: 40.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 5.0¢		Change 0.004(8.70%)		Mkt cap ! $72.79M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
4.7¢	5.2¢	4.7¢	$224.9K	4.583M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	67846	5.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.1¢	208417	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	67846	0.050
1	43478	0.049
1	62510	0.048
2	225000	0.047
6	295616	0.046

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.051	208417	2
0.052	170962	6
0.053	553567	8
0.054	143113	2
0.055	227616	6

Last trade - 16.10pm 30/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

AGY (ASX) Chart

Li-related News/Articles/Reports, page-1083

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