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Li-related News/Articles/Reports, page-1101

  1. 5,576 Posts.
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    I'm not saying it's going to happen quickly if at all, just that it's possible.

    Plug the numbers in.

    Let's assume we get the permits and do get to 12,000TPA. This is completely reasonable and most of us expect it to happen.

    We've literally seen the price of 99.5% pure dilithium carbonate go up by 100,000CNY in the past month alone and it's already at 327,500CNY per tonne and rising at a furious pace. 500,000 CNY in the near term seems likely and much higher isn't out of the question. At, say, 600,000 CNY, we have a profit of around $100,000 per tonne. I'm not saying this is a target, but it's completely realistic as a possibility.

    At 12,000TPA, that's $1.2 BILLION per year. More than double our current market cap.

    It's perfectly reasonable to think we might get the expansion funded with little if any dilution.

    Add whatever multiple you like to the yearly profit to get a market cap prediction. I've seen various figures thrown around here, but at 10x we'd have a market cap of $12 Billion which is approximately a $10 share price. Many here would suggest higher multiples of yearly profit to determine appropriate market cap.

    In blue sky scenario dilithium could go much higher and/or we could get a resource upgrade and/or production increase, plus Tonopah is likely to be additional in there, or we could take on other tenements. Some of this is probable rather than just possible and none of it is unrealistic (correct me if I'm wrong).

    Again, I'm not saying this is my prediction or hope, just hypothetical long term blue sky scenario.

    Just for comparison, and again this is just back on the envelope calculations (as good as any really, given all the variables and unpredictables in there), at a very reasonable 400,000 CNY/tonne, at 12,000TPA that's around $780million profit per year, say at a 10x multiple for market cap that's $7.8B and without dilution that's over $6 share price, and none of that seems especially unlikely (again, correct me if I'm wrong).

    Certainly makes my 90c short/medium term price target seem pretty achievable anyway, and leaves room for further gains after that.

    I hope that was a deep enough breath for you! Haha!
 
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