The Table below is something i started few years ago and i...

The Table below is something i started few years ago and i revisit everynow and then to update.

There are assumptions that i have made (price of Lithium, Production cost, PE ratio, US$ exchange rate, Tax rate) and others which i have excluded (Tonopah, cost of Expansion to 12,000, ...), and I'm ok with some people chellenging every aspect of the assumptions up or down. But these assumptions are the ones i feel comfortable with.

According to the below assumptions, Fair Value based on the 2000tpa plant which is arguable weeks to few months away from commercial production, is $0.48.

Forward looking evaluation of the expansion to 12,000tpa and resource upgrade would significantly rerate AGY.

AGY valuation
		2023	2024		Assumptions
	Lithium price per Tonne
C4	2023	$49,000
	2024		$35,000
					Assumption ignores Tonopah project, and only considers the existing 2,000KT plant and the proposed expansion to 12,000KT plant. Assumption also ignores the funding costs to build the 12,000KT plant.
	Production cost per Tonne
C8	for 2,000KT	$10,000
	for 12,000KT		$10,000
					The 12,000KT plant permitting approval is expected in 2023 (Delayed), with construction expected to begin in late 2023 (Delayed)
C11	PE Ratio (Range 10-20)	10	10
	Current Share Price	$0.430			Potential for increased JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) - indicated resource of 245,120t Li2CO3 at vertical depth of 102.5m. Additional exploration target of 262,000 to 479,000t contained Li2CO3 within depth interval of 102-300m below ground level. Combined JORC estimates outline potential for 507,000 to 724,000t to a depth of 300m. Brine acquifer still open at depth with potential for further drilling, expansion and project life.
C13	Shares on offer SOO	1,404,407,498	1,650,000,000
	Current Market Cap	$603,895,224
C15	Puna Share	22.5%	10%
C16	Argentina Tax	25%
C17	$US/$AUD	$0.67
					2000KT plant is 99% complete, fully funded, on schedule. Commercial Production expected in Q3 23
		July 2022	July 2024
C22	Output Tonnes pa	2,000	12,000
C22 x C2	Gross Revenue in $US	$98,000,000	$420,000,000		Sentinel Satellite Image of Rincon Project
C22 x C8	Operating Costs in $US	$20,000,000	$120,000,000
	Profit in US$	$78,000,000	$300,000,000		Weaker Australian $ increases profit in AUD
minus	Puna Mining interest	$17,550,000	$30,000,000
minus	Tax Argentina (25%)	$15,112,500	$67,500,000		Puna Share is 22.5% dropping to 10% upon completion of 12000KT expansion
	After Tax in $US	$45,337,500	$202,500,000
	After Tax in $AUD	$67,667,910	$302,238,806		Could not find accurate info on Argentian Tax and tax credit for the losses incurred during the first 5 years of operation.
	PE multiple	$676,679,104	$3,022,388,060
divide	Divide by SOO - Fair value per share	$0.48	$1.83