It really comes down to whether you want to tie yourself to a...

It really comes down to whether you want to tie yourself to a certain narrative, or look at it objectively. The Chinese spot price is incredibly fluid and isn't necessarily indicative of contract pricing. But it's certainly a trend indicator. It might be negative right now, and it may even go lower than April 23, but I don't necessarily see contract prices heading to the same depths.

On the other hand, folks like Joe Lowry spruiking $73k per tonne from Chile (June pricing, supposedly), hold the inverse view, but these opinions are just as dubious with actual pricing from Chile (via SQM) indicating US$34k for Q2.

The reality, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Contract prices generally follow spot with a three month lag, and we can see evidence of this in the Q2 results from AKE and SQM. Noting the spot price trajectory so far in Q3, I expect to see reports of $US30-32k for Q3, before turning higher with re-stocking later in the year.

A key problem is that there are certain commentators trying to convince people that contracts prices are holding up well, despite the evidence suggesting the opposite. Some are taking these views as gospel, and are surprised and disappointed when reality sets in. They shouldn't be disappointed, because as you've mentioned, we're still well above the 2020 lows. But those expecting that AGY will somehow secure pricing well above the spot price are setting themselves up for inevitable disappointment. The best course is to ignore the commentators and follow the quarterly reports for contract pricing indicators.