Hey slBrown, easily the most well mannered and polite reply I have ever received. On that note, a privilege -- and I always welcome responses and counter views, and happy you've done so!
I think we might actually already be on the same page here my friend. I certainly wouldn't be apart of the group arguing any of points 1-4 in your response.
As someone pointed out before there are 3 main levels of affect on a stock:
- overall economic level (i.e. Dow Jones)
- industry specific level (i.e. price of lithium)
- company specific level (i.e. AGY themself)
From AGYs history of price performance it's always been the industry specific level that has caused the most effect by far, and the lithium industry level is what I am talking about in my post.
Where as you seem to be talking about company-level (which I mutually agree with your views)
However...
I think due to the conditioning of my experiences with this stock, Im grown more and more numb to the promises being made and focus more on wider lithium sentiment.
Reason being... Every single day since those permits have been lodged by us (nearly 3 years ago) people have been saying how shorters have some nerve shorting the stock because those permits could come out any day now, and a funding deal, and offtake and all the rest.
But if we had been doing what all the institutional investors were doing and not having "fear" of "what if an announcement comes out" I think we'd all be millionaires right now.
Because precedent has shown that in a depressed lithium market, positive company announcements make a third of the share price gains they rightly should.
My investment thesis for this stock has always been based around selling when all 3 levels align in a positive environment (wider economic, industry, and company level) and for me that's not going to happen until that next lithium deficit hits. Company progress is inevitable and will happen...
Pretty sure Jerko said they had some kind of specialist filtration team on the job to work out a solution to their bottleneck issues. Sounds like we're in good hands.
Hope my post makes sense and you can see we're actually on a similar page. Cheers my courteous friend
AGY Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)