Li-related News/Articles/Reports, page-6517

I find it rather amusing - and somewhat concerning - that some people are stuck in the mindset of what is “now”, and cannot assemble and analyse the reality that is unfolding.

One only has to use some rough round numbers to see that the transition to mass adoption of electrified mobility does not rely at all on various issues (cost, veihicle suitability, charging infrastructure, power supply, etc) being “solved” “everywhere” and for “everyone” any time soon.

Just using a round number of 25% EV annual sales growth, we would see new EV sales of roughly:
2024: 17.5M
2025: 21.9M
2026: 27.3M
2027: 34.2M
2028: 42.7M
2029: 53.4M
2030: 66.8M
2031: 83.4M
…at this point it’s getting a bit interesting because 83M EVs might require over 4Mt of LCE…. Which is over 4x the total current global production, and ignores the future Li demand requirements for non-EV applications.
Can the supply side grow to add well over 3Mtpa  in a measly 7 years? Adding circa 500kt LCE capacity per year??? Doubt it. Doubt it very very much.

But hey, let’s assume it can somehow magically achieve this, and the above sales eventuate,
What would that actually mean wrt to the transition of the global fleet?

Well, at that point there would still be less than 400M EVs on the roads.
That is well under half of vehicles on the roads.
So, at that point, even hugely-optimistic sales of EVs (where supply of raw materials could probably not keep up) would still NOT require them to be “suitable” for the majority of vehicle owners.

Exponential demand growth, at a rate that supply will be fully stretched to keep up with, afaict, will STILL result in it taking roughly 15 years or more (from now) before ICE vehicles are effectively phased out of the global fleet.

What that means:
- There is still probably a decade (or more) for industries to “solve” the various challenges that currently make EVs difficult/impractical/unsuitable (or “too expensive” ) for “many” people.
- Massive ongoing demand for raw materials does NOT rely on EVs being “suitable for everyone” in the next 3/4/5/6 years….
- Even IF the uptake unfolds as listed above, and virtually all new sales are EVs in say 10 years from now (which constrained supply will not permit afaict), then ICE vehicles will STILL be over half the global fleet then.

All of the “problems” do not need to be solved today.
There will be at least a 15 year window, afaict, even with supply of key raw materials struggling to keep up.


“EVs won’t see mass adoption “soon” because >>>insert current limitation/issue here<<<“  is a nonsense view imo, pushed by those who can’t see what is - and how things are - unfolding.

DYOR!!!