Rob, I guess this reinforces the doubts around currency of...

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MtnMusic

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22/02/24

13:25

Post #: 72536292
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Originally posted by Rob826: ↑

Some interesting numbers from MINRES yesterday regarding supply expansions out to 2028. Over the next four years, they're expecting to significantly increase production by 5 x current volumes. On an attributable LCE basis, this equates to an additional ~160 ktpa LCE in the market, or roughly a 16% increase on current global supply from just one company alone. Importantly, that doesn't include the additional volumes attributable to their JV's with Gangfeng and Albermarle.

I expect we'll continue to see aggressive expansions in brine and spod from the major operators as they wrestle for market share moving forward and try to crowd out the smaller players. It certainly goes to show just how fragile market surpluses and deficits are. There's some commentary that CATL's rumoured Jiangxi lepidolite mine closure removes 3% of global supply from the market and could push the market to a 1-2% deficit this year. However, if MINRES' expansions go to plan, they alone would account for a ~3% global supply increase this year (~25 kt LCE), which has the potential to more than offset the Jiangxi mine closure.

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Rob, I guess this reinforces the doubts around currency of deficit/surplus projections.
The MINRES document has a lot of maybe's on reaching their targets, seeing 'assumes' is prominent:

Who do we trust now to reliably keep up to date on all the producers/near producer output and all the build, ramp up & expansion delays/care and maintenance/mine closures?
Brokers, battery expert consultancies, government departments?
The first two have their paying clients and want to skew their message accordingly...
Plus the lack of transparency from within China...

Genuine Q, as I don't subscribe to any brokers or consultancy reports.

AGY Price at posting: 12.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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