Yup, you are right - Thanks mate!Happy to be corrected.Great...

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cbetz100

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27/10/21

21:08

Post #: 57126097
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Originally posted by GCar: ↑

Hi cbetz100,

Make sure you get you Lithium (metal) and LCE understood correctly!!

AFAIK, the LCE requirement is about 0.9kg LCE per kWh, or about 60kg for a 70kWh battery pack.
If we take a round number, assuming average pack capacity is a bit lower, e.g. 50kg LCE per pack, then 1 million vehicles requires about 50,000 tonnes of LCE.
This is a good rule of thumb imo.

So, our 12ktpa LCE can "only" supply about 240,000 EVs per year.

Yes, this is relatively few!!

I have provided examples before, based on forecast demand/supply from BMI, that indicate that in about 5 years from now, the Li shortfall may be about 200ktpa, and therefore we will require an EXTRA 200ktpa LCE, on top of what is already in the pipeline, in order to satisfy demand.
For perspective, this is a NEW 20ktpa operation needing to come online about EVERY MONTH, in 2026, 2027, 2028 etc..

Read that again.....
Let that sink in.
Every...single....month.

Imo this will not happen because there has simply not been anywhere near enough investment in new projects yet, and therefore pricing will be strong for many years to come.

BIG years ahead!!!!!

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Yup, you are right - Thanks mate!
Happy to be corrected.

Great article about the subject below - to be read with a grain of salt as it is 1 year (!) old.
When it comes to disruption all the predictions of avisors (Morgan Stanley, Boston, Mc Kinsey and alike) haven been proven wrong -> "Morgan Stanley’s research team sees flat pricing for the next few years."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/new-risk-tesla-other-electric-vehicle-makers-lithium-supply-batteries-51601498472

AGY Price at posting: 27.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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