“I might provide you with a model after the capital raise, but...

“I might provide you with a model after the capital raise, but I'm not going to waste my time right now when we don't know the extent of dilution yet.”


Funnily enough, that is essentially the same message that Pierre brought to the table when I last shared some modelled scenarios - this idea that it is a waste of time because we “don’t know” what the actual numbers are.

This clearly illustrates to me that you do not recognise or understand the benefit of modelling various scenarios and examining the likely impact of various key factors.

A comprehensive DCF model can be used to estimate the impact of various CR scenarios and determine the effect on key project metrics, including their sensitivity to changes in $$ raised and consequent dilution.

If you actually did the work to examine various scenarios, you would have a much better understanding of the potential impact of what you might consider to be a spectrum of outcomes from say pessimistic-to-optimistic, and would be able to see, with some confidence, the actual significance of even a pessimistic dilutionary outcome.

I suggest to you that the impact of a future CR for the 2ktpa plant on the project NPV is actually quite minor…. You can work that out for yourself,

Hence I don’t buy into the fearmongering that some are spreading here.

ps. There is a key point here about educated speculation to get ahead of the masses that rely on being spoon-fed…. But of course you already know all that.