I might provide you with a model after the capital raise, but I'm not going to waste my time right now when we don't know the extent of dilution yet. Regarding LKE, I'm not suggesting it's in a favourable position. The company is struggling, and its survival seems reliant on shareholder naivety. However, that's beside the main point, which is that cap raises evidently diminish shareholder value. LKE's recent cap raise exemplifies this. Yet, if the comparison to LKE is too sensitive, we can examine LAC instead.
LAC conducted a cap raise three weeks ago, pricing shares at US$5, a 25% discount from their previous closing price of $6.63. Interestingly, their current share price stands at US$4.49, approximately 10% lower than the raise price. This underscores the trend that share prices tend to follow the trajectory of raise prices, commonly falling below, and spending some time there. Despite the capital infusion aimed at addressing funding issues for Thacker Pass, LAC's share price has consistently lagged below the raise price. In contrast, if AGY resorts to a cap raise merely to provide working capital to try and fix their 2 ktpa plant, which was meant to be fully funded, it's unlikely to yield material benefits, unlike LAC's situation.
Despite your comments, AGY faces similar financial demands as LKE, requiring hundreds of millions of dollars and burning several hundred thousand dollars each week without clarity on spending due to the JV structure. While LKE's management are full of leaches emptying the purse, AGY also grapples with its own challenges, namely nepotism with the whole Alluralde clan pulling a nice little wage from AGY shareholders, with little to show for it so far. Those 200 employees aren't free, and I'd love to know how much AGY holders are paying to employ Pablo's kids. Unfortunately, we'll never know......
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