Li-related News/Articles/Reports, page-7822

In a sense, yes. There is also a chance you are wrong. We don't know the future for sure in most cases, and we have to make our best estimates and weigh up the probabilities etc.

Over a year ago I thought it was most likely the 2,000TPA plant would work without any severe problems. That is now in the past, we know they did not get it working in time to avoid a CR (yes, there's a purely hypothetical chance of some fanciful offtake deal with payment in advance, but it's of course unrealistic and we literally already know AGY is preparing for a CR).

We don't know with 100% certainty whether production will ramp up this month or next year or never, but with no sign of improvement and no tangible reason to expect it any time soon (anyone with a shred of sanity knows not to trust AGY saying something is imminent, and fixing a cooling system and washing filter cloths isn't a magic bullet fix for anything, it's literally not any form of upgrade or improvement), we have an ongoing issue which may or may not be resolved and if it is, there's zero reason to think it will be soon, and it certainly won't come before a CR is needed.

So, worst case scenario this is a dumpster fire. Best case scenario within the realms of likelihood it's going to go down in price due to the CR. Most likely, they will probably struggle to get a decent deal and production won't come soon. If production does start to increase, there should be time to buy back in.

Keep in mind I wasn't as bullish as in that quote between the time I posted it and earlier today. Mid last year I was expressing concerns about the pilot plant not having done what it supposedly did (both here and directly to JZ) and was told I was being ridiculous and the pilot plant was a success, but now we all know that just wasn't true. If you quote me in two years when the share price is 30c and production is in full swing, I won't be 'wrong' about that because I'm not making the claim that it will never happen. If the price stays above 10c and production kicks along and we see 30c, sure, you can say I was wrong, but I really don't see that happening.

Long term, sure, anything is possible and I've always said that. Short term, AGY is going down and you can feel free to tell me I was wrong if we don't see a CR and sub 10c this year.