Li-related News/Articles/Reports, page-8196

Demand for lithium can potentially ramp up more quickly than supply can. However, as things have turned out, lithium production ramped up far more quickly than we expected it would (and this has already observably happened) and while lithium demand *can* potentially go up very quickly, as it turns out, it *didn't*.

The conventional wisdom about EV demand turned out to be hugely overestimated. The typical estimates of potential lithium production increase turned out to be underestimated.

No point quoting me from over a year ago when I was basing my expectations on conventional wisdom and consensus view at the time, when it turns out with the benefit of the rear view mirror that we were wrong. I realised this some time ago and sold out before the price had dropped to where it is now.

It makes sense to make predictions based on the best information available at the time, but it makes no sense to unconditionally hold on to those beliefs indefinitely when you're dealing with a dynamic situation and new information is constantly available. That's the sort of mentality which will cause you to hold your shares, refuse to sell, scream "LA LA LA LA LA!" with your fingers in your ears and block anyone who presents any new information which contradicts your old beliefs, get angry and frustrated while watching the share price drop. Sound familiar?

We will all make mistakes. One of the most important aspects of trading or investing is constantly being open minded and being ready to accept when we had something wrong and update our position accordingly. So many people make a decision and not only unconditionally commit to sticking with it, but also to twisting their view of reality and performing whatever mental backflips are necessary to maintain their original beliefs.

On multiple companies I've traded and discussed on Hot Copper (AGY isn't the best example), I've spent years consistently calling ups and downs and successfully traded them, with the cheer squad screaming at me saying I've been 'wrong' because every time it goes up they quote a previous time when I said it would go down (ignoring the fact that I sold and it actually did go down) and every time it goes up they quote a previous time I said it would go down and sold (ignoring the fact that I had bought in and enjoyed that rally). So many people seem unable to grasp the concept of viewing things as dynamic rather than static, or accepting that they may sometimes get things wrong and it's best to admit that as soon as possible.