You missed the point entirely.
If you are now claiming a “fair” value is 20-30c, and that it won’t surpass that for another handful of years, then how on earth did you decide NOT to sell at 80c…?
How could your assessment of value have been SOOOO much higher then than it is now?
Were you nonsensically using $80k/t prices as a long-term expectation?
I put it to you that you didn’t really try to examine what the potential value of the company was (or could become), based on conventional analyses such as NPV estimation.
Imo you were just hoping for the run to continue… until it didn’t. Is that about right?
Did you have a target above 80c that you determined based on some type of assessment related to future growth and earnings?
If so, how could it possibly now be 1/4 or 1/5 (or less?) of that target, unless:
1/ you were assuming longer-term prices at several multiples of what you now expect
2/ your current target / “fair” value is not actually geneuine or is based on some extremely low pricing scenario and/or extremely limited production growth
??
Finally, if you actually do believe that it won’t surpass 20-30c for the next handful of years, why on earth would you not take your $30k and put it into all those “better opportunities elsewhere” that are apparently so obvious.
Your actions seem to contradict your words.
…and the general excuse of “I held on because I believed the company when they said they could get the plant built and running sooner” doesn’t actually address why you had some price target that was apparently higher - perhaps significantly? - than the 80c level…
Can you explain why/how that was the case and why even your “late 2020’s” target is now apparently 1/4 or 1/5 or even less…?
Genuinely interested.
AGY Price at posting:
12.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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