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12/06/24

10:01

Post #: 74272685
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Originally posted by Rob826: ↑

I think it's pretty straightforward mate, the market is in oversupply. China's market manipulation, including prices and contracts, is a constant factor in their business practices and won't change anytime soon. This is similar to concerns about short sellers—they're always present, so there's no point in worrying about them. The same applies to Chinese manipulation.

The main issue here is that many are in denial about the current supply and demand situation. The reality is that the market is oversupplied now and is expected to remain so for a few years, with projections suggesting a return to deficit around 2028. This puts AGY in a difficult position, as an oversupplied market makes it very challenging to secure CAPEX funding.

IMO, a CAPEX funding deal is unlikely to be reached this year or next unless JZ is willing to yield in negotiations with a potential partner, resulting in an unfavourable deal for AGY/Puna. However, JZ may be too stubborn for that, and it would undermine his previous statements about "waiting for the best deal." Therefore, AGY needs to wait until market sentiment and prices improve, which could take a couple of years.

In the meantime, the focus should be on getting the 2 ktpa facility operational. It needs to produce at around 55-60% capacity just to break even, so that would be a good start. Additionally, securing an offtake agreement is crucial because production is pointless without buyers.

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Glad you are making good use of your retirement time.
You've been posting since 5a.m.

Nevertheless, this whole post is a generalization applicable to all developers in the Li space.

Why don't go you back to your Canadian threads and post it there? Lots of rampers there lately you should moderate. I heard of someone suggesting building a 80kms road across the canadian forrest for a song.

AGY Price at posting: 9.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 8.3¢		Change -0.005(5.68%)		Mkt cap ! $120.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
8.6¢	8.7¢	8.3¢	$39.23K	463.6K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	225134	8.3¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.6¢	22988	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	225134	0.083
3	336585	0.082
3	164691	0.081
4	699548	0.080
3	111848	0.079

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.086	22988	1
0.088	115624	2
0.090	157851	4
0.092	219587	4
0.093	15300	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 10/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

AGY (ASX) Chart

Glad you are making good use of your retirement time. You've...

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Glad you are making good use of your retirement time. You've...

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