The Chinese have the ability to manipulate lithium pricing to some degree, because they control such a large segment of the market which refines it, as well as battery making. However, when supply / demand dynamics shift significantly it takes away China's ability to manipulate. If they could manipulate everything with full control regardless of supply / demand dynamics they'd have an economy more like 3 times the size of the US already, that just isn't possible.
I read a statistic that China buys 75% of all seaborne iron-ore.
yet look at iron ore's pricing history - Iron ore price 2000-2022 | Statista
Yourself and Dragonslayer are correct that we need to prove ourselves to a partner that we can produce some serious numbers instead of being "pretenders', if we are to raise the capital requirements for the 10,000 plant.
That principle aside, at these lithium prices even if we ran the 2,000 plant at full capacity we'd probably just about break even i reckon, but enough to not require further money to keep us afloat which would be nice.
Those volatilities in lithium pricing is what you want in order to buy lots when lithium pricing shits itself, and sell out when its high. A litihium boom cycle can increase share price 50-500%. That's what you want.
I have no doubt another boom will come one day, just as iron ore has its ups and downs despite being a mature supply chain (which lithium is becoming). I don't think it will reach COVID lithium pricing levels but a boom in the realm of $30k-$50k USD temporarily would be nice around 2027-2030.
If we can time production of the 12,000 plant with that and that next up phase i reckon we can see something in the realm of $2. But that's a long way away and there's a lot of ifs and buts.
the first step is actually producing something meaningful from our 2,000 plant, lets start there....
alas, one thing at a time. first permits came, then, "continuous production", now we want to see some bigger output - lets see it Jerko
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