If you believe the AGY share price is entirely correlated with...

If you believe the AGY share price is entirely correlated with the lithium spot price, then sure, I would agree with you. However, I don't believe that's the case. I think the spot price currently has a strong influence, but it hasn't always been this way, and it might not be in the future.

For context, the last time the lithium spot price was at CNY170,000 was on 14 September 2023. On that day, AGY's share price was 19 cents, which is 76% lower than its all-time high. When AGY reached its all-time high in early February 2023, the spot price was around CNY420,000, which is 340% higher than today's spot price. Based on historical evidence, it seems there's an issue with your model.

I would strongly encourage you to watch last night's MoM podcast that @SicemRex69er posted on this thread. Your estimations are a classic example of "anchor bias", which they discuss during the podcast.