...a little too optimistic and rose-coloured here.
AGY hasn't suddenly gone to 8.7c because of the market suddenly being fed up. It has happened gradually on both counts, and because the funds are becoming exhausted.
If AGY does literally nothing for several years, it won't be 30c as you say, it'll be in administration in under one year and shareholders will have zero.
Literally worst case is pretty much always administration, and while I don't see this happening to AGY, it is literal worst case scenario if you want to talk about literal worst case scenario.
Most likely, we're going to see another CR and dilution next quarter. The last cash injection was only about a quarter's worth of keeping the lights on so the next one is probably less than a quarter away. If the situation at the plant wasn't bleak they'd have told us last week, so we know we currently have a bad situation at the plant and it's just not realistic to think we're going to see a magical ramp up of production and sales income within three months or so from now. They're not going to want to leave a CR to the last minute, because that would guarantee extreme dilution in a CR at an extremely low price.
You can speculate about a spot price recovery in a few years, but predictions that far out are very unreliable as we've seen, and it's hardly a compelling reason to be buying or holding now.
Heck, things are so nasty even gcar has run away to hide somewhere because trying to ramp this shipwreck is now too ridiculous even for him.
It's definitely a very interesting show to watch though, both the company and the discussions here.
AGY Price at posting:
8.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)