Some spodumene mines are at risk, while others are aggressively expanding and will continue to contribute to the oversupply. Pilbara Minerals (PLS) has just delivered a PFS for the P2000 expansion, taking their production to 2000 ktpa, set to be commissioned in 2028. Currently, they produce around 580 ktpa, so this expansion will add an extra 1420 ktpa of spodumene to the market annually from PLS alone. Additionally, Mt Holland (WES/SQM) is currently commissioning with production of 380 ktpa.
Together, these two companies will introduce an additional 1.8 Mtpa of spod to the market. In terms of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), this is equivalent to 240 ktpa LCE, which represents about 20-25% of the current global lithium demand, and this figure does not include PLS's current production.
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