The last couple of years have taught us that global supply can increase more rapidly than previously thought.
People involved in production are typically among the most bullish in the industry (if you're not bullish on future prices you don't get into producing a thing, if you are, you do, so the ones developing production are the ones expecting the highest prices).
So we know that it's entirely physically possible to expand production and more than meet demand, it's not as difficult and doesn't take as long as previously thought, and some are predicting higher prices while others expect stagnant or even lower prices.
The hope here by many holders, biased because they are underwater, it that prices are going to skyrocket in the future because the whole industry is too short sighted to plan ahead and get production happening because they are unaware of the future high prices which retail AGY shareholders know about.
China clearly wants low prices and is willing to play games to keep prices low even if it costs them money.
We'll inevitably see price fluctuation, but we don't really know where the price is going to be in a year or two, let alone more. There's always a war or election result or industry development or consumer trend or some other thing which changes the situation, so the truth is we don't know.
In the mean time, holding a company which isn't producing and has a rapidly falling share price because you hope the lithium price skyrockets in a couple of years doesn't really make much sense.
It's very clear that this is just underwater shareholders desperate to find a reason to justify their decision to buy/hold rather than admit it didn't turn out as they hoped. Hey, you might eventually get lucky with things, but why hang on to that knife while it continues cutting your hand, if your best reason is based in something a year or two into the future? If AGY doesn't get production happening in the next few months there's going to be another CR required and the next one will be quite ugly, and if they don't announce something positive in the next week it's going to take quite a hit, and it's safe to say that if there was something positive to say about the current situation (in the context of the last update) they'd have said it a little over a week ago.
It's not coincidence the SP is at a fresh multi year low and it's not like it was difficult to see it coming over the last month and a bit, heck, even I clearly saw it coming.
Expand
