I'm tipping we'll see an update tomorrow; they've sometimes gone over a month and put up an announcement of the first of the month after the missed month (check the previous production update release dates).
For multiple reasons I'm expecting a bad update. Partly, hey, we've had quite a few years now of constant carrot dangling, guidance not being met, etc etc, and I'm not seeing why this time should suddenly be the first time in over half a decade where there's an amazing improvement. Partly, they fairly consistently put out the announcements more promptly when things look less bad, or it's something they can spin in a positive way. If it's something which will clearly disappoint after a carrot dangle, it tends to come late with a missed month, as we've seen now. Partly, if it was a positive picture, they'd have announced the results to avoid the selloff down to below 7c rather than waiting for the next financial year. As of Monday morning, the new financial year will have started so there's no clear reason to stall unless they're going to wait until near the quarterly, and I doubt they're going to freak the market out by maintaining silence for another month.
The only reason to expect a positive result/big increase in production is that they gave vague but positive-sounding hope in the previous announcement, based on some routine maintenance.
I will be astonished (and probably buying as long as the announcement isn't early and it gaps up on open) if they are already at anything like 50% of nameplate and disagree with you that anything under 55% of nameplate will be a bad look. If they were at, say, 30-40% of nameplate it would show very clear recent improvement and they'd have some credibility if they said they expected it to continue increasing. Any tangible improvement will probably be fairly well received.
A pretty good result is needed to prevent the 7.5c gap closing. This is going to be a very interesting week for AGY. They surely can't delay good news any longer (I doubt they'd have delayed it this long especially when we saw the huge selloff last week), I doubt they're going to delay bad news beyond this week, and we can all see the reality compared to our expectations, which clearly differ wildly between different members here.
AGY Price at posting:
9.2¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)