Clearly some people when given the choice between being brave enough to take an honest look at a situation and losing money, will choose the latter. Most humans are, by nature, remarkably cowardly, which usually served humans well in the natural world but is a severe handicap when it comes to investing.
Many people will bite the hand that tries to feed them and be resentful of that hand later when they are starving.
Are we here to make money or to play happy feels? It seems most people here aren't actually operating with a primary goal of making money.
In any case, AGY is headed to 2.6c this calendar year, probably will test 1.9c this year, and will be sub 1c before the end of 2026, probably next year. All IMO of course, but you can take it to the bank.
I can't even come up with a hypothetical extreme blue sky scenario where AGY avoids breaking 2.6c, and that requires extreme lithium price increase and unrealistic production achievements. Think about the most extreme lithium rally you can realistically imagine, the best possible deal AGY could hope for to fund the 10KTPA plant (extreme dilution at heavy discount - no one is going to burn themselves paying a premium based on a double failurein the wake of ATL being burned), the amount of time it would take to build the 10,000TPA plant, and where the lithium price will be by the time it's finished (in your most wild and optimistic dreams at least two years), let alone successfully producing at scale (2.5 years in your wildest dreams). So, in utterly unrealistic blue sky scenario, they get into production a year after the price rally which allowed them to build the plant.
The market hasn't grasped how bad things are. This company should have a market cap of around $20M at absolute most. The only real value is has is the ~$12M cash backing, but even that is effectively worth very little because it's earmarked to fuel cash burn. Realistically this company should have a negative EV, and has assets worth under $15M. Even in the most radically wonderful scenario imaginable, the current market cap represents horrible value for shareholders.
I challenge anyone to plug in numbers, even wildly optimistic ones, for a lithium price rally, 10KTPA funding deal including dilution, time to completion and production, price of lithium at that time and profit per tonne. Even plugging in wildly optimistic figures I can't see holding now making any sense at all. If you can't plug in these numbers and get a good outcome, or don't even know how (I strongly suspect this is the case for many remaining holders), ask yourself why you're still holding.
AGY Price at posting:
4.4¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
