“your post assumes you yourself as competent, classifying that you belong in 'category A' in your post. Even suggesting that you're above 'most retail' investors.”
Oh dear.
I can TELL you straight up that “category A” is exactly where I am. That process forms a critical part of my analysis and informs my investment decisions.
That to you apparently means some type of “god complex”.
LMFAO
Enjoy (B) at your own peril.
As for the rest of your post, it appears that you somehow nonsensically correlate the activities and outcomes of (A) with somehow providing a crystal ball wrt how the market will behave in the short-term.
What utter nonsense.
Thanks for confirming that you are totally ignorant when it comes to the nature and value of project economic modelling processes.
You are clearly waaaay out of your depth on this topic and your attempt to link that to short-term share price action or market dynamics is absolutely embarrassing.
I’m embarrassed for you, and for those who thumbed your post.
Wow.
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A/ Assessing information/data/opinions/analysis from as many sources as possible to
1: establish your own expectations of potential future cost, pricing and production scenarios
2: analyse these scenarios to estimate the associated metrics like NPV and IRR for various cost profiles
3: determine costs that render the project “unviable” wrt various potential pricing and production scenarios
4: examine reasonableness of “viable”project metrics based on evidence supporting likely project costs
5: examine your scenarios wrt likelihood and assess project economic risk accordingly
6: take calculated risk-based decisions
B/ claim “too many unknowns” and wait “until the company tells us” what their estimations and modelling indicate. Claim it’s “a waste of time” to perform economic modelling because we don’t have all the detailed numbers spoon fed to us. Claim “the market is always right” and “the sp clearly tells us the company’s potential”. …etc.
(20min delay)