Given such a wide range of projections from 'experts', it's fair to say that more than 2 years or so down the track is very difficult to predict, and if you ask those same entities for predictions a year from now they will not just give different answers from each other as they do now, they will give different answers from their own previous answers, so it really just comes down to luck.
But something they all have in common meaning you can be pretty sure it's correct, is predicting low prices to last for more than another year.
The only one which expects a rapid rise in prices soon after a year from now, predicts the peak will be brief, followed by a quick return to lows which last the best part of the next decade.
So, which scenario are you hoping for? One of the ones which means AGY will continue slowly bleeding out for years, or the one which says AGY may be able to gain funding in mid 2026 if it's super lucky, but will then quickly see prices too low to be worth operating the plant they build, or one of the ones which says holding AGY now is crazy because you'll spend years burning yourself and you'd be better off dumping now, putting your money somewhere better for 2-7 years, then buying back in at a much lower price?
Tough choice, and a bizarre one to be examining for someone not making an argument for dumping their holdings.
Even in early 2020 when I was optimistic about the company (they claimed the pilot plant had been a success and they were going to build a commercial plant) and the price was around 20c, I wasn't going to buy until the CR to build the plant, which was done at 13c, immediately crashed the price to 13c, and for months held the price well below 10c. Now we the smoke and mirror show is less convincing and doesn't really make sense (honestly, why are you trying to build an entirely new plant when the one you already build isn't working and you gave up on it?). So the dilution required now will presumably crash the price even harder, and there is no realistic chance of a 'wow, we have great results so we're going to move to the next stage!' story.
The company's own excuse for shutting down operations was that it wasn't worth trying to get the plant to work because even if they could, it wouldn't be worth running, and they'd already spent so much time and money trying, and nothing had worked. Even the CFO has run away, which says plenty about how good we can expect things to look in the near future.
It really is quite surreal that there are people still wanting to hold this thing at this time.
AGY Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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