Very strange to accuse me of pulling out a "hindsight card" when I was discussing concerns years ago when the price was in the 50s and I fully sold out at 10x the current price quite some time ago. Additionally, I'm not so much talking about what has happened anyway, I'm primarily talking about the current state of affairs and where things are heading.
Sounds like there's a very obvious lesson for you in there - whether it's CITI, GS or whichever other big name, take their words with a bucket of salt. Even more obvious and important, if the management of a company says something, take it with a pinch of salt, and once they have established a track record of being full of $#!t, interpret their words accordingly - something current AGY holders seem to have a surreally limited ability to do. Pretty much everyone hates JZ now, but they still make excuses for him and cling to hopes that next time he'll come through. Weird. RIO is attacked in various ways as though it will make JZ/AGY better somehow.
I agree that a rising lithium price will likely raise AGY's price at least somewhat. A rising tide raises all boats from the most glorious to the most dilapidated, as long as they are still floating. But in reality, AGY is taking on water and a rising tide can only do so much. If your strategy is simply 'a rising tide raises all ships', why invest in the tide by picking the worst boat you can find, which is likely to sink at the first sign of a wave?
I completely and utterly disagree that you won't notice a turn in AGY until it raises from 1.7c to around 5c! That's honestly just silly. I greatly, greatly doubt AGY will ever see 5c again anyway (and yes, gcar, you can put that aside for future reference just like you said you did when I said it would never again see 80c and 50c and 20c), but to get to, say, 3c there would need to be a very obvious catalyst such as a massive change in the lithium scene or something dramatic specific to the company, which would be the trigger to immediately jump in (just as the cessation of operations was a screamingly obvious trigger to jump out if you somehow hadn't already). At 15c, 10c, 5c, 3c, 2c and now at 1.7c (a technically bearish close today by the way) I was saying 'Why stick around in a sinking ship hoping for a miracle rather than waiting for that miracle then jumping back on board?'. I'll still be saying it at 1c and below, and to have FOMO and fears of having to pay 5c to get back into AGY just isn't at all based in reality IMO.
It's so weird that I've been commenting on this for years, have primarily given forward looking information rather than retrospective, have overwhelmingly got it right over the years, and you accuse me of "just pulling the hindsight card".
Back when I was bullish (and for almost all of that time my bullish expectations panned out well) everyone absolutely loved it. Now when I'm bearish (which has panned out even more accurately), as you say, it is very unpopular. That is ironic, because the hate and abuse it attracts is from the exact people who should have listened to it and are only angry because they didn't. The exact people who need to hear it hate it. What you're saying is like telling me not to tell a drug user who stuffs their face with chocolate cream buns to have a healthier lifestyle, because that opinion is unpopular. I am very, very much aware that I would be absolutely adored by AGY holders if I made plenty of bullish posts, and fat slobs would adore me if I told them that there was nothing wrong with their hideous diets and lack of exercise and that their health issues were out of their hands and someone else's responsibility and I came up with strategies for them to continue without feeling guilty or responsible, and plenty of people make successful pursuits using that exact strategy. If you wish, you can focus all your attention on such people, they are everywhere, our modern society abounds with such people, and it is no coincidence that our modern society also abounds in fat, dysfunctional, confused people (or people struggling to understand why the stock market doesn't work for them, or why they struggle in their careers, etc, despite having all these people tell them that they are doing the right thing and are not responsible).
Hate and abuse me if you wish, I clearly don't care and would prefer to remain honest and realistic than loved for being a harmful fraud.
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