Liberals win S.A. election

Originally posted by Justis ↑

Eagle, there are a range of factors that determine how voter vote. Naturally some people will vote for the same party they always do dispute policies, some people do vote on policy but some people also vote with their gut ie I just don't trust that guy.

And/or they vote with consideration to all those factor, labor may be making the right noises with their proposed polices but can you trust Shorten. Come election time voters will give that more serious consideration.

There is about a year to go before the next election, at this point voters are not giving serious thought to how they will vote. Closer to the election the polls become more indicative of what the result may be, polling just about always tightens up closer to an election.

In the year ahead we have the May budget to come, no doubt it will be an election budget so lets see that's in that. And if the economy keeps improving as it has, that will favor the government.

Quite likely we will get the 30 news polls but it really means nothing to most people, it's only significant to those that like to think 30 news polls is the only reason Abbott got dumped.

No Doubt Abbott will make some noise about the 30 poll but nothing will come of it

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"Eagle, there are a range of factors that determine how voter vote. Naturally some people will vote for the same party they always do dispute policies, some people do vote on policy but some people also vote with their gut ie I just don't trust that guy.

And/or they vote with consideration to all those factor, labor may be making the right noises with their proposed polices but can you trust Shorten. Come election time voters will give that more serious consideration.

There is about a year to go before the next election, at this point voters are not giving serious thought to how they will vote. Closer to the election the polls become more indicative of what the result may be, polling just about always tightens up closer to an election.

In the year ahead we have the May budget to come, no doubt it will be an election budget so lets see that's in that. And if the economy keeps improving as it has, that will favor the government."

One of your better posts and it's quite reasoned.
I agree with your assertion that voters vote for or against a candidate for a multitude of reasons, and fluctuating weightings of opinions, for and against.
Also, with 3rd and 4th parties polling well, their second preference choices and the accompanying reasons to vote for/against importantly further colour the contributiong factors.

Statistically there could be as many as 762,890 separate imprecise/precise factors , so far, resulting in the following 66% of total voters votes which excludes a small percentage who have cast informal votes.

Two, possibly three seats, remaining undecided; so the poster who declared this a narrow Labor defeat today is at least hasty, or hasn't even looked at the result, because if Libs win at least 25 seats as expected and there are 3 Independents [2 supporting a Liberal Gov't] then Labor are left with at most 19 seats.
That is not close!

For politicians, and posters here, to declare a single factor influencing the result beggars belief.
https://results.ecsa.sa.gov.au/hoa

Count Progress

Column 1 Column 2

1

2 This percentage will only reach 100% if all eligible electors vote

66%
COUNTED
Number of Electors:
1,201,775
Count Status:
Count In Progress
Progressive Statewide 1^st Preference Votes by Affiliation

Party Percentage % Ballot Papers

1 LIB

Column 1

| | [/table]
| | [/table]
| 37.4| 285,125
ALP|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 33.9| 258,673
SAB|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 13.7| 104,735
GRN|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 6.6| 50,626
IND|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 3.4| 25,931
AC|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 3.1| 23,650
DIG|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 1.4| 11,058
AJP|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 0.3| 2,324
DPA|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 0.1| 553
SPGN|

Column 1 Column 2

1

| 0| 215
Total Ballot Papers

762,890