libra estimates

Allright back with some balanced numbers for Libra.

Anyone had a crack at how much gas might b there? In the preso, they've stated 1.3 tcf (GIP) & 4mmbbls. This was all pre-drill estimation.

Post-logging, we know the "Net thickness" of the sands apprx 165m. Did a quick calculation & I am getting 1.9 TCF of Gas in Place (GIP) using the usual parameters of 20% porosity, 90% Gas saturation and a conservative 5 sqkm (or 1235.5 acres) field area. This seems better then what we've been told.

Should one consider a smaller field area, i.e. 3 sqkm (741 acres), then the GIP is 1.16 TCF. One could use another number say 7.5 or 10 sqkm, the GIP will b higher, but for the time being I am being conservative with 5 sqkm.

At this stage I haven't used the recovery factor, which generally ranges around the 17-25%.

Will find out next week or whenever they release an update how big is this beast, but for the time being I still stand by my stance of it being a New Discovery.

IMO, the focus in the future drills would b to establish Libra's continuity with Auriga & Caelum, as a parallel ridge/ structure to Crux, now that Crux pressure theory has been verified.

cheers