libs may lose its safest seat - indi

At the 2010 election Independent candidate, Alan Lappin, gob-smacked the major parties by gaining 6% of the primary vote on a shoe-string budget [he declared that to be ~$25k].

Despite a big swing to the Coalition nationally, Mirabella suffered a humiliating counter-swing against her that reduced her 2PP to 57:43.

The result inspired a rash of additional candidates; one of whose primary polling results was ~25% at the declaration of the election [Cathy McGowan]. Mirabella's primary polling at that time was just 47%; some 6% worse than in 2010.

If talk in the street is a guide, that support may be collapsing.

Cathy McGowan is running a very strong grass roots campaign and is on track to boot out Mirabella out.

Although McGowan's funding is absolutely dwarfed by the over-the-top saturation advertising and mailouts of the Liberals, it has come from within the community and is backed by high profile locals publicly stating their support for her and rejecting Mirabella.

The people of Indi are listening to McGowan and the signs are they're absolutely sick of Mirabella's ineffectiveness and and reputation as Australia's nastiest MP [awarded to her by Tony Windsor].

Former long-serving Vic. MLA, Ken Jasper, is at the front of that list and has put the kybosh on Mirabella:

"... I have been the strongest conservative and I have strongly supported the National Party and Liberal Party in that coalition arrangement, but no I have not supported the federal member [Sophie Mirabella]. ..."

http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/31/transcript-of-jasper-press-conference-for-indivotes/

Tony Abbott seems likely to win the election but the people of Indi may yet be spared more of Mirabella.