Good evening good people. So many have missed the mark here. IOH...

Good evening good people. So many have missed the mark here. IOH got a deal with RIO NOT because of quality (it is merde), NOR because of size (there isn't any), even LESS because of location: what would RIO want with a deal that, no matter which way you cut it, loses margin? Its the POLITICS, stupid! Just when WAG is trying to force open access, well, whatyaknow? RIO cuts a deal to show it can do it without regulation!

Now, UMC: the right place, the right grade, and a size that will threaten market share if it can only get up to the magic 200Mt of RESERVES. Thats right, the magical 10Mtpa for 20 years or 20Mtpa for 10 years - thats the RIO/BHP hurdle. Its where capital intensity intesercts ROI. If UMC can take it from 110Mt to +200Mt, THEN its game on. Question is: who will jump the gun first - RIO or FMG? (PS rumour that FMG has a stake already)