lifton

Macros for anyone that can drag themselves away from the Q report:

"I predict that only one of the two large-scale existing light rare-earth producers will survive. I don’t know yet which one I would pick between Molycorp and Lynas. I predict also that there will be several non-Chinese medium / heavy rare-earth producers that will survive and thrive, but only by moving down the supply chain, as far as they can, to reach a reproducible profitability at the lowest cost.

Rare-earth production could well reach 240-280,000 tonnes by 2020 but almost half of that would be cerium, most of which will have little in the way of unique use. Therefore the real supply of useful and valuable rare earths will be slightly more than half of those figures.

When I project a future basket price for a project, these days I only price the critical rare earths from a deposit. Try that for a dose of optimistic reality."

http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2013/08/counterpoint-supply-and-demand-in-the-rare-earths-market-2015-2020/#more-6772