Okay now it's time for some numbers!Advent (will) hold 85% of...

Okay now it's time for some numbers!

Advent (will) hold 85% of PEL 11 with BUY getting 15% free carried for the Fish well. MRR will be diluted down to 50.55% of advent after it conducts a 27m capital raising for Fish drilling early in 2010.

Focusing solely on the Fish prospect (P10 =7.8Tcf) and ascribing no value at all to any of their other targets (not to mention other PELs, lol), Advents' share of the Fish numbers:

P90 = 425 PJ (@60c/GJ) = $255m
P50 =2050 PJ = $1230m
P10 = 8000 PJ = $4800m

MMRs share is half this. Allow dilution out to 200m shares this equates to:

P90 = 128m AuD = 65c/share
P50 = $3.07 MMR
P10 = $12 MMR


Now addressing the thorny issue of MMR/BUY comparisons and ratios. Again neglecting any other assets BUY or MMR have (and leaving aside the PDF taxation issue) and focusing entirely of the initial fish prospect:

BUY have 553m odd shares and 15% of fish while MMR have just under 43% and say 200m shares. On this basis you'd expect the MMR: BUY share price ratio to tend toward 8:1.

Given BUY closed at 12c, MMR could be around $1 based on this ratio; alternatively if you take a price of 40c for MMR, BUY would be down around 5c. Either way something would seem likely to have to give - and based on the P90 and P50 targets for MMR you might think that it would be MMR's SP as it heads toward 8x BUY.

Any thoughts or counter opinions are very welcome.