Thinking out load what is the likelihood of FAR being taken out...

Thinking out load what is the likelihood of FAR being taken out over the next 5 months as each of the following milestones are achieved ?

• Now - (20% chance low ball offer hence the capper)
• PE parked in arbitration (25% chance low ball offer likely)
• Successful first well - (30% chance low ball offer likely)
• Successful 2nd well connectivity confirmed reserves upgraded  - (50% chance reasonable offer)
• Official DOC declared development plan costed - (60% chance of a good offer)
• PE resolution in FAR's favour - (90%  Huge chance of a high offer unless they have a backer !!!! )

The longer this goes on over the next five months the more the likelihood of a TO.
Following this logic if FAR haven't got a backer there is a better chance of an immediate high return for all shareholders.
Food for thought !
AIMO