What electric has in its favour is that it can be renewable sources. Fossil is finite so its day will come to an end.
Fossil fuel tech is not standing still in the meantime. Electric cars have been around pretty much as long as fossil fuel cars. Its hard to beat a liquid fuel with energy density of diesel and the storage technology is just a simple sealed tank.
Only once fossil fuel becomes scarce and expensive enough does electric vehicle complexity make sense.
A solid state battery with life limit equal to or longer than its host vehicle could be a game changer, but today it doesn't exist and to make such a device cheaper than a fossil "fuel tank" will be a challenge. A fuel tank does exist and its life limit is equal to or longer than the vehicle.
I would say that 2040 is probably the time where oil will be coming closer to $200 per barrel but hey if we keeep finding elephants in west africa maybe later than that?
Likelihood of a TO, page-64
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