"For what it's worth I'll be voting against this one"I think...

"For what it's worth I'll be voting against this one"

I think it's important to understand the alternatives and why this is probably the best deal you're going to get.

If we were to pursue the letter of support which is the other alternative then in this case AFG can pull their mezanine credit and put the trust into receivership. A good outcome here would be a runoff of the business but it's more likely that it would just cram down this deal at potentially equal or worse terms. A receiver would give priority to AFG's claims because they are senior creditors. The notes would trade down into single digits on this news and it's still unlikely that we would get any interest payments as all the cash would go towards paying out AFG instead of us, because they are senior.

Of course at the same time legal proceedings would commence. It's quite possible that Allco could stretch out proceedings beyond their debt stand still date next year. In which case that letter of support would probably just be yet another unsecured creditor of AFG.

The $8 in 18 months isn't worth $8 today but it is worth something. Again the alternative is no money today, lots of uncertaininty and plenty of outcomes where we get nothing EVEN IF the letter of support is upheld.

Bear in mind that Allco is taking a 50% loss on this as well through their Mezzanine finance facility.

I have a tiny position in AFGHA and none in AFG so I'm not trying to support Allco's position. Simply to clarify ours (AHUG holders).

What do you think the outcome of a succesfull no vote would be?