Lindian Resources 2023, page-3

Why is the current share price graph the way it is, and looking a lot like the Arafura graph?

The Lindian PFS will be the thing everybody is waiting for, to see how cheap their hard rock mining will actually be and whether they will have real offtake agreements based on the assumption the final downstream products after phosphate removal in someone else's production plant will be economic. This latter is an uncontrollable risk for LIN and relies on assumptions of the REO price. See assumptions on the lithium price and the markets assessment on ARU which has this secondary step built in to process its Monazite and Apatite ore.


The way I see it is that currently the price of rare earths is controlled by China. This is because they have both the lowest costs to produce SOLUBLE rare earths from ionic clay deposits (not phosphates such as Monazite and Apatite which are insoluble) and they have the best technologies to separate out these soluble rare earths by solvent extraction.
China has already introduced export restrictions on rare earths and REE extraction technologies.

The Lynas share price has not tanked as they are producing and are therefore currently a viable alternative to Chinese REEs (even though they have some radioactivity in the waste).

The newly discovered non-Chinese ionic clay deposits company (below) has not tanked either, even though they are not in production. This is because they are likely to become the lowest cost producers in the future due to low capital costs and low extraction costs (diggers and tanks are VERY cheap to purchase and run compared to drilling, blasting and crushers). Grades are significant and extensive 0.4% TREOs, 80% recovery rates, 25% MREOs.


FYI. Clays can be dispersing or non dispersing. These ionic deposits are saprolitic meaning the haven't broken down to the extent that they become super fine particles in solution and so separation is easy. The clay just settles out. You can swirl the clay in a bucket and see the REE pink colour once the clay settles.
Happy for people to have contrary views.

This is not investment advice. Please do your own research.