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Sports Commercialisation BeginsIn March LNU gained its 2ndand 3rdcommercial launches –with Hungry Jack’s National Basketball League (NBL) in Australia, and LNU’s first English Premier League (EPL) team - Wolverhampton Wanderers (via partner Swanbay).
Swanbay also announced a new partnership with global sports and events management firm IMG. The importance of the Wolves launch is demonstrated by Swanbay now having > 20 active proposals under discussion with other EPL and sports teams, leagues and event owners. Swanbay is confident of converting several of these opportunities by Xmas.
University Challenge
LNU has targeted 20 of Australia’s 43 universities which it believes are innovative and prime candidates for LNU’s video indexing, search and compilation platform. Consultant Kerrie Campbell (ex CIO Flinders Uni and Adelaide Uni; 28 years’ 7experience in government, utilities and banking) is guiding LNU’s approach. Discussions and demonstrations are under way with most of this prime-target group. Kerrie thinks that short trials <4 weeks will be required. CEO Chris Richardson said on a webinar on Friday that LNU hopes to sign 8-10 of these in coming quarters.
Valuation & Recommendation
We believe LNU is now on the cusp of commercialisation. We have modelled 3 potential revenue scenarios:
Scenario A:.7m revenue in FY24 based on 4 Australian and 10 US universities .6m, plus minor Sports and Enterprise revenue .1m. Valuation: 1.5c to 2.5c. A capital raise would probably be required within 6 months.
Scenario B: m revenue in FY24 based on 8 Australian, 30 US and 20 Rest of World universities m, plus m Sports and m Enterprise revenue. Valuation: 7.6c to 12.6c.
Scenario C:m revenue in FY24 based on 22 Australian, 60 US and 40 R.O.W. universities m, plus m Sports plus m Enterprise. Valuation: 17.9c to 29.8c.
We set our 24-mth price target at the mid-point of Scenario B which is $0.10. Our previous $0.25 PT was an optimistic scenario, and is still possible, but is not our central case.
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