yeah I totally gone off that idea. I read ev batteries only use 2kg of lithium each, so the whole lithium demand idea is totally overated as well IMO.
In reality, rock phosphate is a big, big market. Its 150 million ton a year I believe, that puts it behind only iron ore and coal tonnage wise. 90% is fertilizer, so fertilizer will be the only real driver. Algae biofuel could be interesting but thats long term.
I'm very happy with the demand outlook fertilizer wise. Phosphate demand is heavily geared towards the major grains, corn, wheat, rice and soybeans. The world needs many consecutive years of record grain production. I think a lot of phosphate demand has probably been destroyed this year due to high prices, but that just adds demand in following years. As long as grain prices are high, fertilizer prices will be high. Its that simple. This is something people are really missing by thinking the supply response could kill prices, it wont happen if grain prices are high. The thing I like about the supply situation is that it is easy to mine phosphate, simplicity is a key factor for investing in australian mining projects in my view. we dont do complicated or high capex projects well, except FMG and a few rare cases. MAK is really well placed, though there's one or two companies I prefer right now.
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