lithium car batteries pie in sky, page-9

"Peter, there is a technology receiving much more research funding. It's hi-efficiency petrol with turbo/supercharge in this new era of cheaper fuel."

This is a radical departure from internal combustion engines. This is heading toward fully electric transport. There's a number of good reasons other than the cost of fuel to head away from the ICE - simplicity and cost effectiveness of construction/maintenance, low or zero emissions, better performance, home refueling, energy security, peak oil. More efficient ICEs will undoubtedly play a role in the meantime as a substitute for hybrids, but I don't think they're a long term solution.


"If you want to analyse this in lithium carbonate terms, then my figures have 0.4Kg used per kWH. A medium size car with range of 400Km needs 50kWH (a la Tesla) giving 20kg, at $AUD8 per kg giving $160 of lithium carbonate."

The Chevy Volt will have a 16kWh battery pack and the amount of Li is expected to be 1kg. If the Tesla were to use $160 of Li for a car with a price tag of $100,000+ then I don't think its going to bother them much - its aimed at the high end. The vast amounts of money being spent on battery research will increase the energy storage (range) from a given battery weight over time in any case.

"To this must be added the non-competitive price of converting lithium carbonate to lithium phosphate about which figures seem not to be available. It is at a non-competitive price because this process seems controlled by patent, perhaps amongst several manufacturers who horse trade and then exclude others. Car manufacturers will be involved but will keep the mark-up."

These are simple chemical reactions which involve cheap reagents for the quantities involved.

"There is certainty that lithium will compete with petrol and that creates a battery price which could mostly be manufacturers margin."

Battery manufacturers are going to have to be competitive too bu more so on performance and range. The battery pack will be a very important part of the cars competitive advantage. Some car maker are looking to buy battery makers or develop them in-house for this reason.

"As per my previous note on price elasticity, car manufacturers will only use lithium if its price is stable with increasing demand and that's the problem."

Lithium is available from a number of sources though none as high grade or as cheap to exploit as the salars. At the other extreme is seawater which conceivably could be viable in some circumstances - there's no question of running out in any case. What I think is likely to happen is that there will be a price spike which will act as a signal to higher cost producers to bring these sources on line. The price of lithium will rise, no question, but it will settle at a level that's satisfactory to the battery makers and very profitable to the salar operations.