Lithium comes only from Australia and South America. Before all...

Lithium comes only from Australia and South America.

Before all the shorters get their shorts in a knot, let me point a few things out.

1. The DRC, will need 24/7 secured compounds, road transport is not feasible, therefore its a compound with a private airport per mine.  Local and neighbouring militia will be a constant threat to the supply chain.  Logistics, insurance, Human Rights,...etc

2. Bolivia have been robbed by foreigners in the past and they're not going to let it happen again.  They have no local skill-set ,or capital to mine the salt lakes.  Foreign investors would be forever struggling with the sovereign government and fresh water supply is not available.

3. Canada and America have few locations with scarce amounts of high grade supply.

4  China,  have some small mines, but nothing substantial enough to boast on the world stage.  So China will continue to invest in Aus and south america and may work something out in the DRC. 

So that leaves Australia and South America with working mines.

South American Brine lakes are in Arid locations, companies like ORE, SQM, Albemarle, Galaxy are constantly having to give into local demands and are always at war over water supply.  Expansion to keep up with the worlds lithium demand is going to be very costly for companies invested in the South American lithium triangle.

So that leaves Aus, and I think the Aus investors  -especially the long term investors know what is coming this year.

Below is a little chart that shows a rough supply calculation ive managed to capture.  They're just my own stats, so don't have a cow if im off on some.

This is a link to a site that has calculated the actual weight of lithium batteries within certain models, however the weight includes additional components such as casings and metals etc.. so twe wont use these in the calculation. 

REF# http://www.tf.llu.lv/conference/proceedings2017/Papers/N316.pdf

To keep it simple,  lets base some calcs on the widely published note that a 70kWh Tesla battery uses63kg of Lithium Carbonate Li2CO3.,
With this statement we can surmise, that 1 tonne of LCE can supply 16 EVs

The chart below shows the total capable annual output of LCE if all working mines were running at nameplate - which is 419,000T LCE annual output. Which would supply about 6.65 million EVs annually.

So, how long before global EV sales reach this annual target is the question?  with China selling 160,000 EVs last December up 100% from the year before lets guess.

Don't forget that figure 419,000 is battery grade - we have only been talking EVs, now deduct Off grid batteries, home batteries, mobile devices etc..   

Over supply my arse!

good luck to all investors.