Future EV sales penetration forecasts vary markedly, the availability of battery materials will determine reality.
Battery-grade and quality lithium supply, based on currently funded and in production projects, are going to be an issue by 2023/2024 latest.
Based on historical evidence and the difficulties faced by existing lithium producers in ramping up production, the EV market for passenger vehicles is likely capped at 8m in 2023.
EU OEMs are facing new CO2 emission standards and fines from 2020 (95g/km) with further tightening due in 2025/2030, this will result in EU OEMs securing their battery supply chains ahead of US OEMs.
Once battery pack prices fall to sub $100/kWh and EVs are cheaper than ICE alternatives, will US EV consumer demand be met from offshore if they aren't domestically available?
So, temporay oversupply, longer term undersupply. To me it seems car companies would have an interest in ensuring supply, it's an arms race at more than the battery level. DYOR etc
GXY Price at posting:
$1.29 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
