At current Spodumene prices maybe. Here are my numbers:
Imagine Stage 3 with a total production of 10Mt/year. (With the current resource we would have a LOM of 20 years. To justify a high P/E ratio we should find something additional in Mt Francisco.)
Stage 1+2+3 would produce around 1.6 Mt of Spodumene per year. At current prices we have ca. 700 USD margin per tonne 700 USD/t x 1.6 Mt = USD 1,12B margin
With a P/E multiple of 15 you get to a Value of almost USD 17B or USD 10 per share (AUD 13). I have no value attributed to the possible downstream JV with POSCO or anybody else.
What is needed:
1. We actually can proof to produce the spodumene in the quantity and quality promised. (we shall find out soon)
2. Spodumene prices remain high. Not in our hands.
3. Stage 3 with an aditional 5MT production.
4. Further resource upgrade.
5. Operating costs as forecasted. (we will find out soon)
5b. Tantalum credit is as forecasted. (Tantalum prices are not in our hands...)
6. No major disaster....
I think that is very optimistic, but possible.
At current Spodumene prices maybe. Here are my numbers: Imagine...
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