I saw the below posted on the AVZ thread and thought it was very positive for PLS and thought I would share.
Hard rock may take 3 years to come online and brine 6 but expansions of existing mines take much less than that. PLS and AJM DFS show that, MIN/Talison are showing that and thats where future supplies will be coming from.
Ganfeng who PLS says is "Chinas largest fully integrated lithium company" (not sure what that means Tianqi is bigger) only has processing capacity of 35 ktpa LCE currently, which would be around 260ktpa of spodumene supply. They get product from Mt Marion and some from brines and PLS in the near future. They are in the process of commissioning another 20ktpa approx 150k spodumene (likely fed from PLS upcoming supply) and further plans for another 45k LCE down the track all going well. Sure there will be lots of smaller players in the Chinese market hoping to come online, General Lithium adding 16ktpa LiOH (PLS supply), Burwill/JSEM 10-15ktpa plant soon (TAW supply) etc but lots of those smaller players dont have the experience or know how to bring these online successfully as can be seen with Alturas current partner, bank accounts frozen, debt over $300M. For the largest player to only have that much production capacity shows how much of a bottleneck there is in China right now with spodumene/brine conversion.
Tianqi owns and operates two of the largest single point lithium production plants in the world as follows:
- Tianqi Lithium Battery Material Industrial Zone, in Shehong County, Sichuan Province.
- The world's largest battery-grade lithium carbonate production base in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu Province.
- Kwinana lithium hydroxide production base in Western Australia is under construction.
- The metal lithium production base in Chongqing Tongliang Industrial Park.
Tianqi have all the feedstock they need already Greenbushes + brines.
So for example MIN will be producing 750 ktpa spodumene early next year, double Ganfengs current+near term processing capabilities and capable of accounting for all there upcoming expansion proposals over the next couple of years from a single mine. Another option for CATL who may look to buy a chunk of that with the IPO money if they dont already have supply locked up somehow. To choose between owning a running plant in the Pilbara with a proven 30 year reserve or a piece of jungle in remote DRC, who would 99.99999% of businesses choose in that situation, MIN of course unless they could pick up AVZ for a song. The other .00001% would be Airguide who would recommend AVZ.
Then we have PLS, AJM, TAW, ORE, GXY, KDR, ALB, FMC, SQM, NMX, LAC etc etc majority of who are financed with supply coming online and/or increasing rapidly over the next few months to 4 years as required. Mine Supply by start of next year is way out ahead of cathode/carbonate/hydroxide production meaning stockpiles starting to build up. What I do agree with of your post is that storage is growing quickly which we badly need because EVs of all types aren't growing quick enough yet and that ~2022 will hopefully be a tipping point batteries <$100Kwh but 4 years is an awful long time away for an investor looking for a return from a company with no income.
Some predictions state ~800k LCE 2025.
Thats ~6Mt of spodumene.
By 2025;
PLS - 850k likely more by then
AJM - 450k likely more by then
TAW - 600k likely more by then
KDR - 50ktpa LCE
MIN - 750k next year, well over 1m by 2025
GXY - 200k + 30+k LCE
ORE - 40ktpa LCE,
Talison - 1.5mt
I have excluded alot of players and given base case estimates above and we are already close to that mark by 2025. Growth needs to pick up massively for any chance for new entrants especially those with big obstacles like AVZ imo.
(20min delay)