Lithium Demand surge, page-648

I agree with conversion capacity needs to ramp up, which is underway, but maybe some short-term bottlenecks, and this will temporarily disrupt speed of EV take up, as opposed to EV demand. (i.e. last week, Hyundi had to cancel new orders for one of it's EV's planned to hit the market at end of 2018 due to lack of batteries).

I also agree, existing, planned expansion and new supply comming online this and next year will make it dificult for less advanced juniors to get financed (just look at what NMX is going through in order to secure finance to build out their plant, mine and conversion facility). Thus less advanced juniors may need to sit on their deposits until the next wave of demand comes (i.e. 2025 >). Further, existing or near term producer planned expansion will be delayed if market is in significant surplus, because is wouldn't make economic sense to spend additional capex to kill Li prices.

PLS, AJM, etc are pushing hard to get up and running so they can establish market share, enjoy elevated prices with which comes good cashflow, pay down capex debt and position themselves to take advantage of those idle (junior) deposits via potential takeovers or JV's.

I beleive MIN is still a bit of a wild card, which could be delayed in producing first spod concentrate. The projected 800 tpa of LCE demand by 2025 could prove to be conservative, as over the past 3 years demand forecast have been way off (i.e. announced nameplate production, did/has not materialised). The other wild card is the demand side of the equation, it is growing weekly.

With regards to the graph you put up in your post, that if from ORE's presentation last week, which specifically discusses conversion bottlenecks for spod concentrate. However, I think its a bit rich for ORE to be discussing potential bottlenecks, given thier Argentine plant has been in operation for almost 18 months, and they are still approx 18% (3,000 tpa) under nameplate production targets on their stage 1 mine.

Once again, announced nameplate production is not guaranteed, so maybe assume 85% of your production numbers from Oz, which would make way for another PLS or tripple the production that is coming out of South America today, assuming LCE demand is 800,000 tpa.

I suspect ORE understand they will be loosing market share to Oz hard rock, as with SQM, Moron Stanley and a few other downrampers, and therefore, should stick to their knitting.

With reagrs to AVZ, I understand it will cost US$1 billion to develop thier deposit (including roads, electricity). This being the case, as an investor with US$1 bill to spend, why would you not just buy a 50% stake in PLS, and avoid the DRC risks. AIMO, and my apologies to those holding AVZ.